The effect of varying analytical methods on estimates of anti-malarial clinical efficacy

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Analytical approaches for the interpretation of anti-malarial clinical trials vary considerably. The aim of this study was to quantify the magnitude of the differences between efficacy estimates derived from these approaches and identify the factors underlying these differences.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Data from studies conducted in Africa and Thailand were compiled and the risk estimates of treatment failure, adjusted and unadjusted by genotyping, were derived by three methods (intention to treat (ITT), modified intention to treat (mITT) and per protocol (PP)) and then compared.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>29 clinical trials (15 from Africa and 14 from Thailand) with a total of 65 treatment arms (38 from Africa and 27 from Thailand) were included in the analysis. Of the 15,409 patients enrolled, 2,637 (17.1%) had incomplete follow up for the unadjusted analysis and 4,489 (33.4%) for the adjusted analysis. Estimates of treatment failure were consistently higher when derived from the ITT or PP analyses compared to the mITT approach. In the unadjusted analyses the median difference between the ITT and mITT estimates was greater in Thai studies (11.4% [range 2.1–31.8]) compared to African Studies (1.8% [range 0–11.7]). In the adjusted analyses the median difference between PP and mITT estimates was 1.7%, but ranged from 0 to 30.9%. The discrepancy between estimates was correlated significantly with the proportion of patients with incomplete follow-up; p < 0.0001. The proportion of studies with a major difference (> 5%) between adjusted PP and mITT was 28% (16/57), with the risk difference greater in African (37% 14/38) compared to Thai studies (11% 2/19). In the African studies, a major difference in the adjusted estimates was significantly more likely in studies in high transmission sites (62% 8/13) compared to studies in moderate transmission sites (24% 6/25); p = 0.035.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Estimates of anti-malarial clinical efficacy vary significantly depending on the analytical methodology from which they are derived. In order to monitor temporal and spatial trends in anti-malarial efficacy, standardized analytical tools need to be applied in a transparent and systematic manner.</p

High density of ‘spiky’ excrescences covering the surface of an erythrocyte infected with Plasmodium malariae

10.1111/j.1365-2141.2010.08261.xBritish Journal of Haematology15111-BJHE

A new Plasmodium vivax reference sequence with improved assembly of the subtelomeres reveals an abundance of pir genes

Plasmodium vivax is now the predominant cause of malaria in the Asia-Pacific, South America and Horn of Africa. Laboratory studies of this species are constrained by the inability to maintain the parasite in continuous ex vivo culture, but genomic approaches provide an alternative and complementary avenue to investigate the parasite's biology and epidemiology. To date, molecular studies of P. vivax have relied on the Salvador-I reference genome sequence, derived from a monkey-adapted strain from South America. However, the Salvador-I reference remains highly fragmented with over 2500 unassembled scaffolds.  Using high-depth Illumina sequence data, we assembled and annotated a new reference sequence, PvP01, sourced directly from a patient from Papua Indonesia. Draft assemblies of isolates from China (PvC01) and Thailand (PvT01) were also prepared for comparative purposes. The quality of the PvP01 assembly is improved greatly over Salvador-I, with fragmentation reduced to 226 scaffolds. Detailed manual curation has ensured highly comprehensive annotation, with functions attributed to 58% core genes in PvP01 versus 38% in Salvador-I. The assemblies of PvP01, PvC01 and PvT01 are larger than that of Salvador-I (28-30 versus 27 Mb), owing to improved assembly of the subtelomeres.  An extensive repertoire of over 1200 Plasmodium interspersed repeat (pir) genes were identified in PvP01 compared to 346 in Salvador-I, suggesting a vital role in parasite survival or development. The manually curated PvP01 reference and PvC01 and PvT01 draft assemblies are important new resources to study vivax malaria. PvP01 is maintained at GeneDB and ongoing curation will ensure continual improvements in assembly and annotation quality

Modeling the dynamics of Plasmodium vivax infection and hypnozoite reactivation in vivo

The dynamics of Plasmodium vivax infection is characterized by reactivation of hypnozoites at varying time intervals. The relative contribution of new P. vivax infection and reactivation of dormant liver stage hypnozoites to initiation of blood stage infection is unclear. In this study, we investigate the contribution of new inoculations of P. vivax sporozoites to primary infection versus reactivation of hypnozoites by modeling the dynamics of P. vivax infection in Thailand in patients receiving treatment for either blood stage infection alone (chloroquine), or the blood and liver stages of infection (chloroquine + primaquine). In addition, we also analysed rates of infection in a study in Papua New Guinea (PNG) where patients were treated with either artesunate, or artesunate + primaquine. Our results show that up to 96% of the P. vivax infection is due to hypnozoite reactivation in individuals living in endemic areas in Thailand. Similar analysis revealed the around 70% of infections in the PNG cohort were due to hypnozoite reactivation. We show how the age of the cohort, primaquine drug failure, and seasonality may affect estimates of the ratio of primary P. vivax infection to hypnozoite reactivation. Modeling of P. vivax primary infection and hypnozoite reactivation provides important insights into infection dynamics, and suggests that 90–96% of blood stage infections arise from hypnozoite reactivation. Major differences in infection kinetics between Thailand and PNG suggest the likelihood of drug failure in PNG

Estimating Gestational Age in Late Presenters to Antenatal Care in a Resource-Limited Setting on the Thai-Myanmar Border

No grant i

Gestational diabetes mellitus prevalence in Maela refugee camp on the Thai–Myanmar Border: a clinical report

Background: Individuals in conflict-affected areas rarely get appropriate care for chronic or non-infectious diseases. The prevalence of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) is increasing worldwide, and new evidence shows conclusively that the negative effects of hyperglycemia occur even at mild glucose elevations and that these negative effects can be attenuated by treatment. Scientific literature on gestational diabetes in refugee camp settings is critically limited. Methods: A 75 g 2-hour glucose tolerance test was administered to 228 women attending the antenatal care (ANC) clinic in Maela refugee camp on the Thai–Myanmar border. Prevalence of GDM was determined using the HAPO trial cut-offs [≥92 mg/dL (fasting),≥180 (1 hour), and≥153 (2 hour)] and the WHO criteria [≥126 mg/dL (fasting), and 140 mg/dL (2 hour)]. Results: From July 2011 to March 2012, the prevalence of GDM was 10.1% [95% confidence interval (CI): 6.2–14.0] when the cut-off determined by the HAPO trial was applied. Applying the older WHO criteria yielded a prevalence of 6.6% (95% CI 3.3–9.8). Age, parity, and BMI emerged as characteristics that may be significantly associated with GDM in this population. Other risk factors that are commonly used in screening guidelines were not applicable in this diabetes-naïve population. Discussion: The prevalence of GDM is lower in this population compared with other populations, but still complicates 10% of pregnancies. New evidence regarding gestational diabetes raises new dilemmas for healthcare providers in resource-poor settings. Efforts to identify and treat patients at risk for adverse outcomes need to be balanced with awareness of the risks and burdens associated with over diagnosis and unnecessary interventions. Screening approaches based on risk factors or using higher cut-off values may help minimize this burden and identify those most likely to benefit from intervention

Climate induces seasonality in pneumococcal transmission

Streptococcus pneumoniae is a significant human pathogen and a leading cause of infant mortality in developing countries. Considerable global variation in the pneumococcal carriage prevalence has been observed and the ecological factors contributing to it are not yet fully understood. We use data from a cohort of infants in Asia to study the effects of climatic conditions on both acquisition and clearance rates of the bacterium, finding significantly higher transmissibility during the cooler and drier months. Conversely, the length of a colonization period is unaffected by the season. Independent carriage data from studies conducted on the African and North American continents suggest similar effects of the climate on the prevalence of this bacterium, which further validates the obtained results. Further studies could be important to replicate the findings and explain the mechanistic role of cooler and dry air in the physiological response to nasopharyngeal acquisition of the pneumococcus.Peer reviewe

International gestational age-specific centiles for umbilical artery doppler indices: A longitudinal prospective cohort study of the INTERGROWTH-21st project

Background: Reference values for umbilical artery Doppler indices are used clinically to assess fetal well-being. However, many studies that have produced reference charts have important methodologic limitations, and these result in significant heterogeneity of reported reference ranges.Objectives: To produce international gestational age-specific centiles for umbilical artery Doppler indices based on longitudinal data and the same rigorous methodology used in the original Fetal Growth Longitudinal Study of the INTERGROWTH-21st Project.Study design: In Phase II of the INTERGROWTH-21st Project (the INTERBIO-21st Study), we prospectively continued enrolling pregnant women according to the same protocol from 3 of the original populations in Pelotas (Brazil), Nairobi (Kenya), and Oxford (United Kingdom) that had participated in the Fetal Growth Longitudinal Study. Women with a singleton pregnancy were recruited at weeks\u27 gestation, confirmed by ultrasound measurement of crown-rump length, and then underwent standardized ultrasound every 5±1 weeks until delivery. From 22 weeks of gestation umbilical artery indices (pulsatility index, resistance index, and systolic/diastolic ratio) were measured in a blinded fashion, using identical equipment and a rigorously standardized protocol. Newborn size at birth was assessed using the international INTERGROWTH-21st Standards, and infants had detailed assessment of growth, nutrition, morbidity, and motor development at 1 and 2 years of age. The appropriateness of pooling data from the 3 study sites was assessed using variance component analysis and standardized site differences. Umbilical artery indices were modeled as functions of the gestational age using an exponential, normal distribution with second-degree fractional polynomial smoothing; goodness of fit for the overall models was assessed.Results: Of the women enrolled at the 3 sites, 1629 were eligible for this study; 431 (27%) met the entry criteria for the construction of normative centiles, similar to the proportion seen in the original fetal growth longitudinal study. They contributed a total of 1243 Doppler measures to the analysis; 74% had 3 measures or more. The healthy low-risk status of the population was confirmed by the low rates of preterm birth (4.9%) and preeclampsia (0.7%). There were no neonatal deaths and satisfactory growth, health, and motor development of the infants at 1 and 2 years of age were documented. Only a very small proportion (2.8%-6.5%) of the variance of Doppler indices was due to between-site differences; in addition, standardized site difference estimates were marginally outside this threshold in only 1 of 27 comparisons, and this supported the decision to pool data from the 3 study sites. All 3 Doppler indices decreased with advancing gestational age. The 3rd, 5th 10th, 50th, 90th, 95th, and 97th centiles according to gestational age for each of the 3 indices are provided, as well as equations to allow calculation of any value as a centile and z scores. The mean pulsatility index according to gestational age = 1.02944 + 77.7456*(gestational age)-2 - 0.000004455*gestational age3.Conclusion: We present here international gestational age-specific normative centiles for umbilical artery Doppler indices produced by studying healthy, low-risk pregnant women living in environments with minimal constraints on fetal growth. The centiles complement the existing INTERGROWTH-21st Standards for assessment of fetal well-being

Plasmodium vivax lineages: geographical distribution, tandem repeat polymorphism, and phylogenetic relationship

Background: Multi-drug resistance and severe/ complicated cases are the emerging phenotypes of vivax malaria, which may deteriorate current anti-malarial control measures. The emergence of these phenotypes could be associated with either of the two Plasmodium vivax lineages. The two lineages had been categorized as Old World and New World, based on geographical sub-division and genetic and phenotypical markers. This study revisited the lineage hypothesis of P. vivax by typing the distribution of lineages among global isolates and evaluated their genetic relatedness using a panel of new mini-satellite markers. Methods: 18S SSU rRNA S-type gene was amplified from 420 Plasmodium vivax field isolates collected from different geographical regions of India, Thailand and Colombia as well as four strains each of P. vivax originating from Nicaragua, Panama, Thailand (Pak Chang), and Vietnam (ONG). A mini-satellite marker panel was then developed to understand the population genetic parameters and tested on a sample subset of both lineages. Results: 18S SSU rRNA S-type gene typing revealed the distribution of both lineages (Old World and New World) in all geographical regions. However, distribution of Plasmodium vivax lineages was highly variable in every geographical region. The lack of geographical sub-division between lineages suggests that both lineages are globally distributed. Ten mini-satellites were scanned from the P. vivax genome sequence; these tandem repeats were located in eight of the chromosomes. Mini-satellites revealed substantial allelic diversity (7-21, AE = 14.6 +/- 2.0) and heterozygosity (He = 0.697-0.924, AE = 0.857 +/- 0.033) per locus. Mini-satellite comparison between the two lineages revealed high but similar pattern of genetic diversity, allele frequency, and high degree of allele sharing. A Neighbour-Joining phylogenetic tree derived from genetic distance data obtained from ten mini-satellites also placed both lineages together in every cluster. Conclusions: The global lineage distribution, lack of genetic distance, similar pattern of genetic diversity, and allele sharing strongly suggested that both lineages are a single species and thus new emerging phenotypes associated with vivax malaria could not be clearly classified as belonging to a particular lineage on basis of their geographical origin